There is no military solution to the Afghan conflict must be the mantra in Washington. The Trump administration is mulling sending 3,000-5,000 more troops to train and assist the Afghan forces, but we have already witnessed more than 100,000 US and NATO troops being unable to end the guerrilla conflict in Afghanistan. After 16 years of non-stop fighting, the US policy regarding the war in Afghanistan must focus on the political dimension rather than solely the military dimension.
In recent history, peace accords have been signed off on three continents over long standing political and territorial disputes. The ‘Good Friday Agreement of 1998’ was inked between Ireland, Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom and put an end to decades of unrest in the British Isles. The National Peace Accord of 1991 paved the way for the 1994 general elections in South Africa that resulted in National Unity government headed by Nelson Mandela. The National Reconciliation Process ended the decades long strife of the South African people for self-determination and an end to Apartheid. This process once again proved that a resolution by non-violent means is still possible. More recently, the Sri Lankan military defeated the Tamil Tigers separatist insurgency in May 2009, bringing an end to a 26-year old civil war. However, the 16-year long war in Afghanistan has eluded all educated guesses about putting an end to a protracted insurgency.
The 2016 US presidential debates were mostly focused on personal insults at the expense of largely ignoring the international hot spots of Afghanistan, the Levant and the Middle East. Afghanistan, where US troops are engaged in the longest war in American history, was not mentioned even once in the entire campaign season, nor did it even make it into President Donald Trump’s inauguration speech. Similarly, Pakistan, which holds the master key to resolving the Afghan war, was hardly mentioned. The stakes still remain high, as shown by the Trump administration’s mulling over a troop increase and the dropping of the MOAB on ISIS fighters in the eastern part of the country. There seems to be no end in sight.
Pakistan’s double role, as a US ally on the War on Terror while simultaneously abetting Taliban that kill US troops, has been highlighted on numerous forums, but US policy and lawmakers are not very confident as to how to deal with Pakistan. Recently, the Hudson Institute put together a comprehensive list of 10 policy proposals to deal with Pakistan, which can rightly be described as a mixed bag of carrots and sticks. The authors, however, stopped short of declaring Pakistan a State Sponsor of Terrorism, though they did propose to avoid viewing and portraying Pakistan as an American ally.
Pakistani officials claim that if the US and 45-countries strong NATO Coalition have failed to defeat the Taliban in 16 years, then how can our thinly-stretched army be expected to dismantle Taliban strongholds in Pakistan? At a cursory glance this looks like a legitimate position, but the truth is far from it.
The fact is that US and NATO allies have comprehensively defeated the Taliban inside Afghanistan, but this is a war in which fresh foot soldiers are supplied continuously from across the border. With two exceptions, the US has not targeted Taliban leadership entrenched in Pakistan, more specifically in Quetta, the Tribal belt and Karachi. The Taliban enjoys sanctuaries in Pakistan with some level of support from Pakistani officials. This is evidenced by the fact that funerals of Taliban fighters killed in Afghanistan are heavily attended by terror sympathizers in Dir, the hometown of Jamaat-e-Islami Chief Sirajul Haq. Pakistani conservative leaders have always legitimized the war in Afghanistan as Jihad, which is considered a duty in Islam.
The question on everyone’s mind is how to go after the Taliban leadership in Pakistan, especially the Haqqani Network, from a tactical standpoint and what can be done on the diplomatic front to dissuade Pakistan from nurturing extremist militants. There is a broad consensus among US policy makers and analysts but the devil lies in the details. There is a growing concern in Washington and patience is running out. If the proposed mini-surge is not accompanied by coercive measures taken against Pakistan, then it is probably aimed at buying more time for the Trump administration to admit defeat in Afghanistan.
No matter which approach is adopted, it is now abundantly clear that a cocktail of coercive actions need to be in place to force Pakistan abandon its use of terror as a tool of foreign policy, as the carrots have not yielded any positive outcomes. The other piece of the puzzle to resolve the Afghan quagmire lies inside Afghanistan itself.
Afghanistan, despite massive aid from the US and international community, is a hotbed of corruption and failed governance. Eight hundred million dollars down the road, the Afghan National Defense and Security forces are nowhere near the level to secure their own country. The recent attacks in Mazar-e-Sharif, Kabul and Balkh exposed the chronic weaknesses of the Afghan forces. In almost all these attacks, the Taliban have received insider help. If 16 years of donor assistance didn’t prepare the Afghan forces, it is unclear what an additional 5,000 troops will achieve.
The National Unity Government of Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah is anything but “Unity”. Vice President Rashid Dostum is in exile in his own country and had only recently visited Kabul. Amid torture and rape allegations, Dostum is reportedly flying to Turkey, which has been dubbed as another long exile for him. This will result in more uncertainty in Kabul, where shadow of former President Hamid Karzai has long been lurking.
In all this murkiness, China may come as an unwilling interlocutor. The Taliban have held several rounds of peace talks in China. The Trump administration has the option to take China aboard in helping resolve the Afghan imbroglio, as it is a key Pakistan supporter and holds reasonable stakes in the Afghan economic development through regional alliances.
Resurgence of an affiliate of the Islamic State has added another dimension to an already very complex situation. It is imperative for the Trump administration to come up with a comprehensive Afghan policy as soon as possible, as abandoning the country at this point is tantamount to handing it back to the Taliban.  Ultimately, the US cannot afford it, especially with the Islamic State on the run from the Levant and looking for new abodes. The mayhem in Kabul today that killed and injured hundreds underscores the need for dealing with the Taliban and other terrorists at the earliest.

Friday July 08 witnessed a rare glimpse of unity when people came together to pay their homage to the passing of one of its best – Abdul Sattar Edhi – in a country bitterly divided along sectarian, ethnic, political, and social lines. The charity giant died in Karachi after a prolonged illness.

Born in a small village of Bantva near Joona Garh in the Indian state of Gujrat in 1928, Edhi moved to Pakistan in 1947. He lost his mother when he was 19 and it changed the course of his life –  he couldn’t finish his high school.

It all started when Edhi decided to help out the the victims of a flu outbreak in Karachi in 1957. The small dispensary went on to become Pakistan’s most impressive social enterprise to date. Edhi Foundation manages a sprawling, countrywide charity network of more than 1,500 ambulances, 2 choppers, 350 medical centers, a huge volunteer force, a graveyards and an adoption service for abandoned children.

Continue reading it here:

http://www.alternativeperspectives.org/edhi-the-passing-of-a-humanist/

Today my son graduated from a local middle school in Montgomery County in the State of Maryland and will attend the nearby high school after the summer vacations. Montgomery County public schools are considered to be one of the best in United States as they excel in students’ learning outcomes, infrastructure and quality of instruction. In this article, I will explain the nature of the US education system and make an attempt to draw a comparison with other systems.
The US education system follows a pattern similar to many systems around the world. Early childhood education (pre-kindergarten) is followed by five years of primary school which is called elementary school in the US. The next stage is three years of middle school, and four years of secondary school called high school, and then postsecondary (tertiary) education. Primary to high school education is completed in 12 years and is known as K through 12 or K-12.

Continue reading it here:

http://www.alternativeperspectives.org/a-comparison-that-never-was/

Though Pakistan is currently consumed with fallout from the Panama Leaks, yet another storm is also brewing in the shadows. With a population hovering around 210 million, Pakistan is the 5th (and not 6th) largest country in the world trailing behind China, India, United States and Indonesia. Pakistan is the smallest in size as compared to the other four most populous nations of the world. There are no reliable figures or precise numbers related to Pakistan’s population in the past 18 years. The Council of Common Interests on Feb 28, under the chairmanship of PM Sharif, postponed the population census indefinitely citing “commitments of security forces and ongoing operations”. Despite demands from opposition politicians, the constitutionally mandated population census has been deferred once again. Interestingly, the Council decided in its last meeting in March 2015 that census will be held in March this year.

Continue reading it here:

http://www.alternativeperspectives.org/no-consensus-on-pakistani-census-2/

Attacking Non-Violence
Dr. Asim Yousafzai
 
The message is loud and clear on Bacha Khan’s death anniversary. Kabul and Peshawar bled on the same day when his followers were getting ready to commemorate the 28th death anniversary of non-violence preacher Bacha Khan, also known as the Frontier Gandhi. At the twilight of 15-year presence of US and NATO troops in Afghanistan, violence continues unabated on both sides of the Durand Line.
 
Taliban terrorists precisely timed it to target a University named after Bacha Khan, the anti-colonial leader who preached non-violence all his life. Born as Abdul Ghaffar Khan, he rose to eminence in British India with his philosophy of non-violence and his followers revered him as Bacha Khan, the king of hearts without a kingdom. Awami National Party (ANP) named a University after him in his hometown of Charsadda in 2012. Like most other seats of higher learning established by ANP in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa, Bacha Khan University was a prime target for the terrorists. As usual the slain were declared as “heroes”, “brave” and “resilient”, though they went there to impart and receive education. The blood-soaked scene was heart-wrenching and was the second major attack after the Army Public School (APS) massacre of December 2014 which claimed the lives of 145 innocent school children.
 
In a video statement, Taliban leader Umar Mansour has vowed to continue attacks on all educational institutes “which come from Britain and America”. Taliban wanted to demonstrate that violence is the only way they will achieve their objectives, nullifying the wishes of those leaders who have always advocated negotiating with them and offering them olive branches. Dozens were killed and injured in this incident by four Taliban terrorists who were later gunned down by security forces. The victims included Syed Hamid Hussain, a professor of chemistry who had a doctorate degree from U.K. He fought bravely with his licensed pistol and saved the lives of many students.
 
Taliban also wanted to give the message that they are as powerful and resilient as they have ever been. Operation Zarbe Azb has merely dislocated them and pushed them into Afghanistan where they are busy in their winter offensive against the fragile national unity government in Kabul. Pakistan has two very long borders; one each with India and Afghanistan and both of them are now heavily guarded by the Army. If these attacks are orchestrated from foreign soils, then terrorists are operating freely across these borders, and the Army has failed in its mission. The Pakistan government’s tall claims of “breaking the terrorists’ backbone” has once again fallen flat.
 
Pakistan’s counter terrorism strategy, formulated after the APS attack, has contributed little to the slight decrease in violence in 2015 while it has everything to do with internal Taliban rifts and splintering after the news of the death of its supreme leader Mullah Omar. The Pakistani State’s violent reaction after the 2014 school massacre has achieved little so far. Under the National Action Plan (NAP), Pakistan reinstated the death penalty and it failed to achieve its perceived objective of deterring the terrorists. You cannot deter a suicide bomber with death penalty; it is not only counter-intuitive, but counter-productive as well. In fact, it acted as a recruitment tool for the terrorists who used it effectively to stir anti-state sentiments.
 
The Bacha Khan University attack has led to an increase in the anti-India sentiment as Pakistani media quickly turned the general population’s attention towards a RAW involvement in the attacks, of course without any evidence. As it has turned out in the past, all major attacks inside Pakistan were carried out by Pakistani citizens who were all killed on the spot.  If the fragile peace overtures between India and Pakistan were shaken by the Pathankot attack, the Bacha Khan University attack has collapsed the negotiation structure altogether. The Pathankot attack was carried out Jaishe Muhammad, a supposedly banned Pakistani organization which operates with impunity all over the country. Consequently, the University attack has given the powerful military another chance to strengthen their position at home and ask for more Coalition Support Funds.
 
Pakistan has not only failed to tackle terror in all its manifestations, but it also resisted any indigenous efforts to initiate a long term solution to the problem. The non-violence lessons introduced by the ANP provincial government in the curriculum have been replaced by Jihad-inciting essays which leave little difference between secular and madrassa education in the country. The process of Islamization, vigorously initiated by Gen Zia ul Haq in the 1980s, has finally reached its zenith when a young boy from Punjab cuts his own hand off because he mistakenly raised his hand to disprove of the Prophet of Islam.
 
In the absence of counter-narratives to violence, terrorists will strike at will. There is sufficient capacity to tackle the terrorist groups in the country, however, there is insufficient will to neutralize all terrorists. The ‘Good’ and ‘Bad’ Taliban nomenclature is still in vogue. The country is bleeding profusely from home-grown terrorists and it is getting too late to put an end to them.
 
The blame game continues; while a Taliban faction has accepted the responsibility of the University attack, Khyber Pukhtunkhwa Chief Minister has stressed on India and Afghanistan to stop terrorism in Pakistan. India and Afghanistan have consistently asked Pakistan to stop the flow of terrorists being facilitated from the Pakistani side. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani told CNN “Terrorists in Afghanistan come from China, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and the Middle East”. It is beyond comprehension as to why would India and Afghanistan support an attack on a University named after Bacha Khan, who is more revered by Afghans and Indians than in his own country.
 
More recently, the implementation and effectiveness of NAP is now openly being questioned. The State of Pakistan is making it easier for all shades of terrorists, including the deadly Daesh, to cement their adobes in the country. President Obama was spot on when he said in his State of the Union address that Middle East and South Asia will remain unstable for decades to come. Let’s see if this changes anytime soon.
 
The author is a Washington DC based geopolitical analyst and author of the book Afghanistan - From Cold War to Gold War. He can be followed @asimusafzai           

  


                   
Recent articles published in the US media are giving the impression that Islamic State, with a global Jihadi appeal, is struggling hard to get a foothold in Pakistan but the authors of these articles are either downplaying the tell tale signs or the articles lack the necessary framework in which emerging terror organizations flourish.
 
As the Taliban lose steam as a result of the death of their supreme leader Mullah Muhammad Omar and splintering and internal fighting, stage is set for a new group to take over. A cursory look at the metamorphosis of Jihadi organizations in Pakistan and Afghanistan over the past two decades indicate that they are getting deadlier, sophisticated and high tech savvy with every passing year; from Mujahideen groups willing to negotiate to Taliban willing to blow up and finally to Islamic State willing to behead innocent people. This is a worrying development not only for the South Asian region but for the entire world as well.
 
More recently, the expansion of the Islamic State into eastern Afghanistan has led U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter to undertake a surprise visit to the Jalalabad Base in Nangarhar province where some 600 US troops are stationed. Mr. Carter warned of the Islamic State threat amid worsening security situation in Afghanistan creating more fears for the stability of the national unity government in Kabul. Khorasan Group, the Islamic State’s branch for South and Central Asia, opened its first radio station in Nangarhar province which is clearly audible in the tribal regions of Pakistan and its presence in Afghanistan will have a spill over effect in Pakistan across the porous Durand Line.
 
There are certain unmistaken sings that suggest the emergence of and a strong footprint of the Islamic State in Sunni-majority Pakistan. With a population of 200 million, nine percent of Pakistanis support the Islamic State but more troublesome is the fact that 62 percent don’t know the answer to this question, reports a PEW research survey.
 
Presently, Deobandi terror groups are giving way to Salafi/Takfiri terror groups inspired from the Islamic State. Taliban splinter groups announcing their support for Islamic State and pledging allegiance to its so-called “Caliph” Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, and more importantly, Pakistani terror organizations such as  JuD and LeT, waging a Jihad in Kashmir, are completely aligned with the same ideology that Islamic State is propagating in Iraq and Syria.
                                                              
Arif Jamal, author of a book on LeT recently told me “The Islamic State and the JuD and LeT are two sides of the Salafism coin. They are actually natural allies. They are closely cooperating in Nuristan, Kunar and Nagarhar and other places in Afghanistan. JuD leaders’ anti-Islamic State statements are meant to take us away from the ground reality”.
 
In the capital Islamabad, Mullah Abdul Aziz, the famous cleric of Red Mosque (Lal Masjid) uprising, has publicly denounced the constitution of Pakistan and openly supports the attackers on Pakistan’s security forces. However, Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar has refused to issue orders to arrest him. Jamal said, “We now know that the then ISI Chief General Kayani unleashed the Red Mosque Brigade to destabilize the regime of General Musharraf in 2007. The rise of the Red Mosque Brigade and Lawyers’ Movement simultaneously were not mere co-incidences. I would say that the rise of the Red Mosque and Lawyers’ Movement and the murder of Benazir Bhutto later were closely interconnected.”
 
Though wall chalking and pamphlets in support of the Islamic State in various cities in Pakistan have been showing up since 2014, two recent incidents in Karachi indicate more support for the group. The Vice Chancellor of a private university is being held on charges on material support to the Islamic State, and a group of 20 influential women were arrested by Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) in Karachi are now said to be the financiers for the group. The accused were behind the Safoora carnage in which 46 Shias were ruthlessly massacred on a bus in May 2015. Reports have started to pour in from all major urban centers of the country about active recruitment for the group. The latest revelation came out on Dec 27 that CTD has busted an Islamic State cell in Sialkot and according to investigators, the eight operatives arrested from the cell have vowed to “overthrow democracy and introduce Khilafat in Pakistan through armed struggle”.
 
Pakistan has about 20 percent Shia population and some 500 Shias have traveled to Syria and Iraq to fight against the Islamic State. A recent car bombing in the Shia-majority Para Chinar city of the tribal region of Kurram killed 25 and injured dozens. Those who have recently joined the fight in Syria are now actively using social media to lure others in to joining the Islamic State.
 
The Pakistani terror group ASWJ accepted the responsibility and put the blame on Shias traveling to Syria and Iraq. The ASWJ purportedly had an electoral alliance in Punjab with the ruling Muslim League of Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, the brother of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
 
The Pakistani officials have consistently refuted the presence of Islamic State operatives in the country and Nisar as recently as May this year categorically denied their presence. On October 3, Army Chief Raheel Sharif said in an address to The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London “even a shadow of IS will not be allowed”.
 
The Pakistani state is in denial for three main reasons - first the military establishment does not want to give the impression that their Zarb-e-Azb operation in the tribal regions of Pakistan is anything short of complete victory over terrorists. In essence, most of these terrorists have been pushed to the Afghan territories where they are strengthening the Afghan Taliban ranks. Secondly, they want to assure the United States that Islamic State is not a threat to either Pakistan or the United States and the funding should continue to flow to Pakistan and its armed forces. Thirdly, the National Action Plan, initiated after the horrific school massacre in Peshawar in December 2014, is sluggish on many fronts and has not yielded the desired results, especially curbing funding sources to the seminaries.
                                              
Pakistan continues to ignore the threat posed by its more than 30,000 religious seminaries and Pakistan’s Interior Minister declared it on the Parliament floor that “these seminaries are partners of the government and not our target”. He added “why should we target them if they had not committed any terrorism.” All attempts to regulate these seminaries have failed due to religious backlash or political opposition.
                                                                                                   
The recent case of radicalization of the San Bernardino shooter Tashfeen Malik is just the tip of the iceberg. Founded by an ultra conservative Farhat Hashmi, the school system where Malik was radicalized is known for radical conservative teachings and has worldwide presence. Arif Jamal told me, “al-Huda school system is closely allied and linked with a Pakistan-based Salafist jihadist group Tehreekul Mujahideen which is waging jihad in Kashmir. Tehreekul Mujahideen is the armed wing of Jamiat Ahle Hadith of Pakistan, which is hugely funded by Saudi Arabia.”
 
As Henry Kissinger famously said “There cannot be a crisis next week. My schedule is already full”. Can the world deal with the Islamic State in a nuclear armed Pakistan? Let’s not forget that Pakistan is manufacturing tactical nuclear weapons by the tons and they can not only be used by the State but also actively sought after by the non-state actors as well.

Video of my presentation at Pakhtoon American community Association PACA on real and perceived causes of earthquakes in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Very interesting Q&A as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ORrPOybx0&feature=youtu.be&a

Foreign Policy magazine published my article on the fall of Kunduz and what it means for the future of Afghanistan and the US presence there. I argue that more NATO soldiers is not the solution.

Continue reading at:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/09/afghanistan-kunduz-kabul-ghani-nato-msf/